Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $522,387$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{572,768.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(572,768.0\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,870$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,303.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.3)}}\) (asimptote \(38,303.6\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,607$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $420,303$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{508,153.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 181.5)}}\) (asimptote \(508,153.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,142$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,158.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 152.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,158.3\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,199$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $301,896$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,061,589.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 341.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,061,589.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,141$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,252$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,296$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,689.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 129.2)}}\) (asimptote \(96,689.9\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,071$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,160.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,160.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,996$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $77,325$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,594.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 161.5)}}\) (asimptote \(83,594.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $292$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.8)}}\) (asimptote \(281.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,612$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $51,020$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,954.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(45,954.2\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,103$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,179.1}{1 + 10^{-0.824 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,179.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,629$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $114,744$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,225.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(115,225.9\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $690$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 83.3)}}\) (asimptote \(611.6\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,559$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $341,495$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335,129.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(335,129.5\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,144$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,174.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,174.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,556$ on 2020-10-16