Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Oman
  • Bahrain
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Kuwait
  • Saudi Arabia
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Singapore
  • Kazakhstan
  • Qatar
  • Korea, South

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $522,387$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{572,768.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(572,768.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,870$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,303.6}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 175.3)}}\) (asimptote \(38,303.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,607$ on 2020-10-16

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $420,303$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{508,153.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 181.5)}}\) (asimptote \(508,153.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,142$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,158.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 152.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,158.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,199$ on 2020-10-16

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $301,896$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,061,589.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 341.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,061,589.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,141$ on 2020-10-16

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,252$ on 2020-10-16

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,296$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,689.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 129.2)}}\) (asimptote \(96,689.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,071$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,160.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,160.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,996$ on 2020-10-16

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $77,325$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,594.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 161.5)}}\) (asimptote \(83,594.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $292$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{281.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 138.8)}}\) (asimptote \(281.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,612$ on 2020-10-16

Kyrgyzstan⮸

Population $6,524,195$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $51,020$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,954.2}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 121.8)}}\) (asimptote \(45,954.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,103$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,179.1}{1 + 10^{-0.824 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,179.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,629$ on 2020-10-16

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $114,744$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,225.9}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 145.5)}}\) (asimptote \(115,225.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $690$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{611.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 83.3)}}\) (asimptote \(611.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,559$ on 2020-10-16

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $341,495$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{335,129.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.6)}}\) (asimptote \(335,129.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,144$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,174.4}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 120.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,174.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,556$ on 2020-10-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Singapore recovered 100%
Kazakhstan recovered 92%
Qatar recovered 92%
Saudi Arabia recovered 86%
Korea, South recovered 81%
Uzbekistan recovered 74%
United Arab Emirates recovered 57%
Tajikistan recovered 50%
Israel recovered 49%
Bahrain recovered 48%
India recovered 21%

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $57,901$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,326.4}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 117.9)}}\) (asimptote \(56,326.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.9}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(26.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $89$ on 2020-10-16

Kazakhstan⮸

Population $18,776,707$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,302$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,710.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 116.0)}}\) (asimptote \(108,710.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,768$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,749.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 135.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,749.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,613$ on 2020-10-16

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $128,992$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{120,892.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(120,892.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $222$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{211.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 92.7)}}\) (asimptote \(211.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,764$ on 2020-10-16

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,108$ on 2020-10-16

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $443$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{357.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 54.0)}}\) (asimptote \(357.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,407$ on 2020-10-16